S ince taking office in January, US President Donald Trump has signed a host of executive orders, several of them with strong immediate or potential impacts worldwide and, in particular, in Mexico.

Among the most significant are measures against immigration, which included ending US citizenship by birth, as well as the suspension of the entry of unauthorized immigrants into the country through the southern border with Mexico and the disappearance of the CBP One platform, one of the last legal entry routes that remained open for those seeking asylum. Claudia Sheinbaum’s government announced that Mexico is prepared. It should be remembered that it is the country with the largest number of unauthorized citizens living in the United States (an estimated four million people). The government’s plan focuses on deported Mexicans, although President Sheinbaum has indicated that the country could also temporarily receive deported foreigners. Within a month of Trump taking office, 13,000 people had been deported to Mexico, worrying numbers, but similar to those of previous administrations.

Another measure that directly impacts Mexico was the decision of the United States to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist groups, considering them a risk to national security, foreign policy and the economic interests of the United States. This could expand the strategies of US intervention to the detriment of Mexico’s independence as a country. It is also worth noting that Trump has made particularly strong statements, saying, for example, that “Mexico is largely governed by the cartels.”

Basically, he blames his neighbors for the migration crisis and the fentanyl consumption epidemic and, to force Mexico and Canada to reinforce their borders, the American president threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all their exports to the United States. The Mexican government managed to stop this possibility, at least for a month, by sending 10,000 soldiers to its northern border with the promise that they would act as a containment wall against irregular migration, fentanyl trafficking and cartels. Subsequently, the United States ended up imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on all imports from all countries, including Mexico. To date, it is not so clear whether these trade sanctions and tariff threats are hard bargaining tools or ways to increase revenues in the US.

It is worth remembering that Mexico and the United States maintain a deeply integrated, albeit asymmetric, trade relationship: in 2024, 83% of Mexican exports were destined for the US, while only a third of US imports came from Mexico (15.5%) and Canada (14.8%). The outlook is complicated and worrying, since the imposition of tariffs by the US and a possible retaliatory response from Mexico and Canada could lead to contraction in the economies of the three North American countries, inflation and massive layoffs.

Another decision with significant repercussions has been the suspension of almost all foreign cooperation programs, in particular by USAID, the largest development cooperation agency in the world. Many Mexican organizations are being directly or indirectly affected, leading some to a process of restructuring and even layoffs.

NATIONAL: Between advances and pending issues, a question of perspectives

In January, President Claudia Sheinbaum presented a report for the first 100 days of her government. She included as part of the advances “the recognition and full rights of indigenous and Afro-Mexican peoples and communities, the right of the Mexican State to use the tracks for passenger railroads, the recovery of PEMEX and CFE as companies of the people of Mexico after their long privatization, social programs for well-being, the recognition of the right to housing, it was approved that the minimum wage must always increase more than inflation, the disappearance of some autonomous organizations and so that they do not deceive, their functions remain and are improved, the strengthening of the national guard, the increase in intelligence and investigation capacities (…) and a very important and transcendent one: women are already in the Constitution with recognition of substantive equality, the right to a life free of violence and equal work, equal pay.”

The opposition parties criticized this perception. The president of the National Action Party (PAN), Jorge Romero, declared that “Mexico follows the same logic of destruction of institutions and counterweights, of polarization of society, which disdains dialogue with those who do not think like them, which fails to achieve peace and security, and that the only economic benefit it has generated is derived from giving away money to generate electoral clienteles, without really increasing the country’s economy.” On behalf of the PRI, Alejandro Moreno Cardenas stated: “In the first 100 days of the MORENA government, 7,016 Mexican families have lost a loved one due to intentional homicide.” “This is the reflection of the #FracasoPresidencial (#PresidentialFailure) of a government without direction, incapable of guaranteeing the security of the people of Mexico.”

In November, Amnesty International (AI) published a report entitled “Changing the Paradigm. From the Militarization of Public Security to Citizen Security with a Human Rights Approach”, which documents that the number of military elements deployed rose from 48,500 in 2006 to 73,347 in 2022. In addition, the militarized National Guard has 128,000 members. AI reports that, in this same period, “at least 101,933 people have disappeared and 452,254 have been murdered, including 49,100 women, 140 journalists and 221 people defending territory, land and the environment”. It also warns that the strategy of militarizing public security “violates Mexico’s international obligations regarding human rights”. The report concludes that after almost two decades of using the Armed Forces to lead public security, the persistence of violence shows that “this strategy has failed, since not only has it not helped reduce crime and violence affecting the country, but it has created an environment conducive to members of the Armed Forces violating human rights when carrying out their activities.”

In terms of human rights, in January, the Mexican Institute for Human Rights and Democracy (IMDHD) presented the Citizen Review on Institutional Performance in the Matter of Disappearances. “As of January 27^th, 2025, the number of missing persons reached 121,651, according to the National Registry of Missing and Unlocated Persons (RNPDNO). The number of missing persons in Mexico continues to grow,” it reported. Seven years after the General Law on Disappearances came into effect and despite mainly legislative advances, problems remain, it stated, in particular: deficient information on the total number of missing persons; insufficient information on the number of human remains that must be identified; the non-existent capacity to identify human remains; the abandonment of the so-called “long-standing” cases; the lack of strategic plans to guide and link actions; the non-existence of a policy for preventing the disappearance of persons; the weaknesses and gaps in the training and technical preparation of the people in charge of implementing the processes of search, investigation, administration of justice, human identification, technical advice, assistance, care and reparation; the few and weak spaces for participation of victims in public policies; and the very low levels of sentences, among others.

CHIAPAS: New state government’s plan is “zero corruption, zero complicity and zero impunity”

In recent years, Chiapas has been immersed in a spiral of violence that seemed unstoppable: homicides, disappearances, human, drug and arms trafficking, forced recruitment, as well as internal forced displacement, have reached unprecedented levels. These high levels of violence have had their origin in the dispute for territorial control between several criminal groups linked mainly to the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) and the Jalisco New generation Cartel (CJNG), particularly in the border area. In this context, analysts and civil society organizations pointed out the inability, complicity or collusion of the authorities to stop the growing insecurity.

On December 8^th, 2024, the new governor Eduardo Ramirez Aguilar (ERA) took office proposing a change of strategy by launching the Pakal Immediate Reaction Force (FRIP), an elite unit destined to combat organized crime in the state. The new governor promised that “peace will reign again on our roads” and set himself the goal of pacifying the state in 100 days. The FRIP is made up of 500 special forces elements from the different Armed Forces of the country, trained and with special training abroad and in Mexico. In addition, the “Pakal Group” will have four helicopters, ten armored trucks, 200 patrol cars and two drones. Its first actions from the following day have been widely disseminated in the media and social networks with mega operations in different areas of the state, whose objective is to combat mainly three crimes: homicide, vehicle theft and extortion or protection rackets.

So far, the actions in Chiapas have yielded results, including: the reduction or disappearance of shootouts; the lifting of roadblocks; the rescue of kidnapped people; the discovery of graves; searches and confiscation of stolen cars, drugs and weapons; arrests of drug dealers, police officers and the mayors of Frontera Comalapa and Bellavista. According to official sources, crime rates have been reduced and more than 600 people have been arrested in one month of operations.

However, doubts and questions have begun to arise. From various areas it is pointed out that the leaders of the criminal groups are not being arrested. Others question the fact that legal action has not been taken against former governor Rutilio Escandon and the officials who were in charge of public safety and the administration of justice during his term. Likewise, human rights violations have begun to be documented during operations, searches or arrests. Another question is that these security strategies have been coordinated mainly by the Secretariat of Public Security (SSP) and the State Attorney General’s Office (FGE), which are coordinated by controversial people.

Oscar Alberto Aparicio Avendaño, head of the SSP, has training as a sniper by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in the United States; police training at the Attorney General’s Office (PGR); and cartography at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). In 1999 he began his career in the PGR during a campaign against drug trafficking. In 2007 he was in the Ministerial Police of the Attorney General’s Office of Chihuahua. In 2009 he joined the Federal Police and was director of Public Security in Apatzingan, Michoacan. He helped create the Immediate Reaction Force of Zacatecas (FRIZ) when he served as Undersecretary of Police Operations in this state. FRIZ has been publicly linked to criminal acts ranging from the disappearance of people to homicides.

Since December, seventy civil society organizations (CSOs) have expressed their deep concern over the appointment of Jorge Luis Llaven Abarca as Attorney General of the State of Chiapas. “The appointment of Llaven Abarca places a Prosecutor who is committed to the political and factual power groups in Chiapas, sending a clear signal that his government is not only betting on corruption and impunity, but also on practices of repression and violations of human rights,” the CSOs denounced. Llaven Abarca was Secretary of Public Security and Citizen Protection during the government of Manuel Velasco Coello. The CSOs warned that, in this context, “his administration was characterized by the excessive use of public force, repression of human rights defenders, arbitrary arrests and torture, acts that remain unpunished.”

Some go further and question whether, after all, it is a “simulated” peace or “pax narcotica’’. They point out the low profile of many of those arrested, the low seizure of drugs and high-powered weapons and the lack of armed opposition that criminal groups have presented to the Pakal Group (even though they have great firepower and hundreds of members). This makes them think that there was a non-aggression pact between state forces and criminal groups prior to ERA taking office.

Social movements continue to demand change

From December 28^th, 2024 to January 2^nd, 2025, the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) celebrated the 31^st anniversary of the armed uprising. The first days of the “Encounter of Resistances and Rebellions” took place in San Cristobal de Las Casas. On December 30^th, the celebration began in Oventik, municipality of San Andres Larrainzar, with a cultural program where around 3,000 people gathered. The crises caused by capitalism, its impact on indigenous peoples, and the use of organized crime to dispossess communities of their lands were addressed.

The EZLN also shared its internal evolution, moving from a hierarchical structure to a more democratic and participatory model. This process, which the Zapatistas call “the common,” involves a form of community work and the collective use of resources. The EZLN reaffirmed its commitment to building a new society free of capitalism. It warned that, although they seek peace, they are prepared to defend themselves against any attack.

In January, hundreds of Catholics from the parish of San Pedro Chenalho made a pilgrimage to this municipality to raise a series of demands. They argued that “the security promises made during the campaign by the new government (led by the MORENA member Eduardo Ramirez Aguilar), have a lot of force in the news and on social networks, but not in our reality. We understand that there are operations, searches and arrests against organized crime, but without dismantling them, these actions do not guarantee the path of justice or peace.”

On January 25^th, in the framework of the closing of the Jubilee Year jTatic Samuel Ruiz, thousands of Catholics from the seven pastoral zones of the Diocese of San Cristobal de Las Casas made a pilgrimage to this city to demand, among other things, the disarmament and dismantling of criminal groups in Chiapas and justice for the murder of Father Marcelo Perez Perez (which occurred in October of last year). They also asked that there be no “media simulation” of peace. Among the slogans at the event were, among others, “Government, define your position: are you with the people or with crime”, “We want a solution, not simulation”, “Cartels out of Chiapas”, “Stop narcopolitics”, “Stop forced displacements”, “Stop death projects”. The pilgrimage was led by the apostolic nuncio in Mexico, Joseph Spiteri and the bishops of the diocese, Rodrigo Aguilar Martinez and Luis Manuel Lopez Alfaro.

OAXACA: Attacks and repression against land and territory defenders continue

In January, Arnoldo Nicolas Romero, who disappeared shortly before, was found dead. He was a communal land commissioner of Buenavista, a municipal agency of San Juan Guichicovi, in the Tehuantepec Isthmus. Educa C.A. demanded an end to the repression against land and territory defenders, emphasizing that the commissioner always maintained a firm position in defense of life, as well as an active participation in the fight against the Interoceanic Train project and the construction of the so-called Development Poles, which opponents consider were imposed in rigged assemblies.

For their part, social and civil organizations expressed their “total repudiation and rejection of the violent repression” that shock groups carried out on January 14^th against the residents who were protesting to denounce the imposition of a garbage dump in Oaxaca “without having consulted them, putting public health and the environment at risk”. During their peaceful mobilization, “showing off their impunity,” shock groups arrived and assaulted and evicted the protesters, “this being the second time that the government of Salomon Jara has used these criminal groups to intimidate those who oppose his government,” they denounced. They also expressed their “total repudiation and rejection of the violent repression, using shock groups as a means to resolve the problems that affect the people of Oaxaca.”

In February, the Union of Indigenous Communities of the Northern Zone of the Isthmus (UCIZONI) reported that Wilfrido Atanasio, Victoriano Quirino and Abraham Chirino, residents of “El Platanillo” in San Juan Mazatlan and members of the organization, were ambushed and killed on the border of the municipalities of Santo Domingo Petapa and San Juan Mazatlan. It said that the attack could have been carried out by community members of Santo Domingo Petapa and held the state government responsible, as it had been warned about the conflict and polarization between the municipalities. The National Indigenous Congress (CNI) and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) spoke out to demand justice, as well as an end to the war against indigenous peoples. “This is not an isolated incident, but part of the war of extermination that bad governments, local bosses and capitalist interests are imposing on our peoples,” they denounced.

Zapotec and Mixtec communities in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca continue their struggle against the “Zapotec Road Corridor” project, a plan that, according to the state government of Salomon Jara, aims to improve the region’s road infrastructure. However, many communities denounce the risk of deforestation, disappearance of groundwater, displacement of biodiversity, as well as damage to crop fields and water wells, among others. Representatives of the Front of Commissariats for the Defense of Land and Territory denounced the lack of rapprochement by government officials, violating their rights to self-determination and prior consultation. Despite being known as the “Zapotec Road Corrodor,” many consider it to be a continuation of the old “Southern Bypass,” a project that was halted years ago due to protests.

On other notes, on November 25^th, within the framework of the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, the network of Oaxacan Women Weaving Community denounced the rise in femicide violence, as well as the multiplicity of forms of violence that women experience daily: physical, psychological, economic, sexual, political and digital. Likewise, it was outraged by “the omission and impunity of the State, which the government of Salomon Jara Cruz continues to perpetuate. Nothing has changed, that gender alert that was decreed in 2018 in light of the seriousness of the situation continues to be a mere simulation, which instead of translating into strategic actions to address and sanction those who violate us, attests to how painful numbers of femicides are sustained throughout the state. More than 209 since December 1^st, 2022.” The Network has also documented 708 missing women during the current MORENA administration, “for which there is no progress in the investigations nor an efficient search mechanism that stops covering up criminals.”

GUERRERO: “Guerrero, in the abyss of death”, Tlachinollan

In November, German Reyes Reyes, former head of the municipal Public Security Secretariat of Chilpancingo, was brought to trial, after being accused of being responsible for the murder of Mayor Alejandro Arcos Catalan last October. The mayor, from the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition, had appeared decapitated, with his head on the roof of his truck, after a meeting he attended, without escorts, in territory dominated by the criminal group Los Ardillos. “German Reyes Reyes, a retired military man accused of ordering the murder of the municipal president of Chilpancingo, Alejandro Arcos, served as a prosecutor for serious crimes from 2022 to 2024. In the new municipal administration, he managed to get a position as head of office in the Public Security Secretariat. His career in the state capital was cut short on November 12^th, when he was arrested by the National Guard and the Army. At the initial hearing, the public prosecutor accused the official of being part of the criminal group Los Ardillos,” La Montaña Tlachinollan Human Rights Center explained.

It also questioned: “What could Guerrero society expect from a prosecutor in charge of investigating serious crimes when they accuse him of being part of a criminal group and prosecute him for the heinous murder of the municipal president? (…) the federal forces have not been able to overcome the destructive power of the criminal groups. Instead of pushing them back and subduing them, they are strengthening and expanding. (…) In this scenario dominated by criminal organizations, the security strategy operated by the Army is flawed and unreliable, because the federal forces and the police corporations are on the opposite side of the victims.”

In the framework of the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, in November, Tlachinollan denounced that the state “is stained with the blood of women, where at least 8 municipalities have a Gender Violence Alert due to the high rates of femicides. In the Mountain, cases of sexual violence have worsened; domestic, economic and psychological violence have left women defenseless because the authorities do not protect them; the most cruel are the disappearances because no one looks for them (…). Forced marriages of girls continue to be practiced without state and federal authorities implementing actions to eradicate it.” From January to October 2024, “20 femicides out of 180 murders of women were reported in Guerrero, four minors, 14 of 18 years of age and older and two without specifying age. 1,368 complaints were filed, 169 against personal freedom, 14 against life and physical integrity and two against human trafficking.” Tlachinollan stated that these levels of violence are largely due to the impunity that prevails in the vast majority of cases.

On a more hopeful note, in January, authorities of the Communal Property of San Miguel del Progreso, municipality of Malinaltepec, integrated into the Regional Council of Agrarian Authorities in Defense of the Territory (CRAADET), reported that, after more than four years, the National Agrarian Registry (RAN) finally delivered its Communal Statute in the Me’phaa (Tlapanec) language; which they considered “an unprecedented and historic event” for the indigenous peoples of Mexico and a great advance in the defense of territories threatened by foreign interests. They stressed that “we can now act in accordance with the law, and without being criminalized when we act against those who claim the natural resources we have in our territory, as happens with the latent threat of mining companies; of companies that seek water or of those that want our biodiversity.” “The recognition of our status means the fusion between agrarian law and the collective law of the indigenous peoples. With this, the federal government had to face a different way of interpreting the law and rethink the tools necessary to make our rights effective,” they concluded.